An Etymological Dictionary of Astronomy and Astrophysics

A theorem in probability theory concerned with determining the → conditional probability of an event when another event has occurred.
Bayes’ theorem allows revision of the original probability with new information. Its simplest form is: P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(A)/P(B), where P(A): independent probability of A, also called prior probability; P(B): independent probability of B; P(B|A): conditional probability of B given A has occurred; P(A|B): conditional probability of A given B has occurred, also called posterior probability. Same as Bayes’ rule.

See also: Named after its proponent, the British mathematician Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). However, Bayes did not publish the theorem during his lifetime; instead, it was presented two years after his death to the Royal Society of London.